Category Archives: Manilla NSW

3-year trends to September 2014

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“September 2014 had little rain”

Trends to September 2014

 September data (orange)

Most raw anomaly values for September remained on the cool-moist side of normal. However. both rainfall and dew point were again well below normal.

Fully smoothed data (red)

The latest fully-smoothed data (March 2014) continued the trends established in summer. All were moving away from drought, except for daily minimum temperature. That is, nights were becoming very warm.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999. They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 

September Climate Anomalies Log

Posted in 21st-century climate, Calendar month anomalies, Climate Change, Manilla NSW by

Heat Indicators log for September months

This post is the seventh in a set for the 12 calendar months that began with March. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.

Raw anomaly values for September

Extreme values of September anomalies in this period were all in the “Moisture Indicators” group:

Temperature range anomaly (minus) +3.6 deg: September 2010;
Cloudy days % anomaly +33%: September 2010;
Dew Point Anomalies (4) -3.8 deg: September 2011, -4.7 deg: September 2012, -4.9 deg: September 2013, -4.1 deg: September 2014.

Trend lines for September

Heat Indicators

The trend of daily maximum temperature anomalies was concave, with a minimum at 2007. The trend of mean temperature anomalies was similar, but less concave. The trend of minimum temperature anomaly was almost straight, but had a weak maximum in 2008 and ended low. The subsoil temperature anomaly trend was parallel to that of the daily maximum, but higher.

Moisture Indicators log for September months

Continue reading →

Decadal and Inter-decadal changes in rainfall: I.

Posted in Australian Climate, Climate Change, Manilla NSW, Rainfall from 1883 by

Log of smoothed summer and winter rainfall anomalies.

Part 1 of 3: The whole 130-year record

(See Notes below for data and plotting details.)

Anomalies of smoothed summer and winter rainfall

Episodes of high or low summer rainfall do not coincide with those of winter rainfall (except in 1891). Nor do they consistently oppose each other, although this is common. The summer rainfall anomaly (red) was extremely low (-101 mm) about 1900, and extremely high (+119 mm) about 1975. The winter rainfall anomaly (blue) had lower extreme values: 1939 (-48 mm) was the lowest of several low values, and 1987 (+63 mm) the highest of several high ones.

Seasonal sums and differences

I plotted the smoothed yearly value of rainfall anomaly as the sum (purple) of a winter anomaly value and that of the following summer. There was an extreme maximum in 1891 (+139 mm!), and minimal values in 1899 (-79 mm) and 1913 (-87 mm), among others.
The difference between summer and winter seasonal anomalies (orange) shows as an extreme summer excess in 1974 (+163 mm), and extreme winter excesses in 1900 (-126 mm) and 1987 (-114 mm).

Log of smoothed sum and difference of summer and winter rainfall anomalies.

“Dreadful Thirst”

Banjo Paterson’s comic verse “City of Dreadful Thirst” refers to the town of Narromine, 300 kilometres west of Manilla.
Continue reading →

Winter 2014 normal

Posted in Manilla NSW, Season Weather by
Berries on a melia tree

Chinaberries in winter

This winter, there were no very warm or very cold spells. There was one sunny spell with a wide daily temperature range in early August, followed by a week with a narrow temperature range.
There were 38 frosts. While this is below the 16-year winter average of 44, it is near the average for the last seven winters. From 2001 to 2006 the winter average was higher: 47 frosts.
Rain fell on 15 days (normal), with a highest reading of 26.6 mm, which is also normal in winter.Weather log for winter 2014

Seasonal means and totals were all not far from normal except for the dew point. The dew point of 0.7 degrees was more than two degrees low, showing extremely dry air, as in winter 2012. The daily minimum temperature was almost a degree high, reducing the temperature range and raising the mean temperature as well.

The winter rainfall total of 106 mm is just below the average (125 mm) and in the 40th percentile.

Climate for winter 2014

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperature, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to August 2014

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“August 2014 back to normal”

Trends to August 2014

 August data (orange)

Most raw anomaly values for August have returned to near normal. The daily maximum temperature anomaly has finally fallen below normal and rainfall has risen above normal. The dew point anomaly remains well below normal, but its value is on the (green) trend line that has applied during the last three years.

Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully-smoothed data is now available for the summer season ending in February 2014. During the summer all variables except daily minimum temperature moved decisively away from drought. Rainfall increased rather slowly, but cloudiness increased very rapidly, and daily temperature range fell very rapidly.

The hot-arid climatic peak (drought) of spring 2013

Extreme anomaly values of climate variables came in the following order:

Highest minimum temperature (not high): July;
Highest subsoil temperature (extreme): July;
Widest temperature range (very wide): October;
Highest maximum temperature (extreme): October;
Least cloudiness (normal): October;
Lowest dew point (extreme): December;
Lowest rainfall (very low): December-January.

This is not the order that is typical in recent extreme episodes. The smoothed rainfall anomaly minimum of -22.3 mm (not nearly as low as the -27.1 mm of July 2002) came much later than the peak of daily maximum temperature. On the top left graph the trace curved anti-clockwise, which is unusual.

Note:

Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999. They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.