An Extreme 24-month Drought

The 830 mm of rain that fell in the last 24-months is the lowest in 50 years.

Rainfall shortages September and October 2018 at Manilla

Graph of Rainfall Shortages

This graph shows all the present rainfall shortages at Manilla, short term and long term, in terms of percentile values. The latest values, as at the end of October, are shown by a black line with black circles. Those from one month earlier, at the end of September, are shown by a thinner line with smaller white circles.

Changes this month

October rainfall that was normal (51.6 mm) also raised the totals for 2 months and 3 months, so they did not qualify as serious shortages. The 4-month total of 101 mm just qualified.
Extreme shortages formed a new pattern. In September, two values had been exceptionally low: the 6-month total had been the third lowest ever, and the 15-month total had been the lowest. By October, no rainfall was far below the 1st percentile value. They clustered at 12 months, 15 months, 18 months and 24 months.
As the 24-month rainfall shortage was extreme (below 840 mm), this became the worst 24-month drought in half a century. Extreme 24-month droughts had come in 1902, 1913, 1946, and 1966, but never since.

Further Explanation

Much more detail was given with last month’s graph of rainfall shortages, in the post: “Record 15-month Drought in 2018”. Notes include: “Long-term shortages”, “Classes of rainfall shortage”, and “Manilla rainfall records”.

Drought development plot

Drought 2018 contour chartThe development of the 2018 drought at Manilla is shown in the post “Contours of Manilla’s 2018 Drought”. The graph there shows contours of drought severity plotted against date and duration.

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