3-year trends to October 2018


3-year trends to October 2018

October raw anomaly data (orange)

In October 2018, raw values of three anomalies moved low on the graphs, showing more moisture . They were: cloudy days percent, dew point, and (narrow) daily temperature range. Rainfall increased from very low back to normal.
For temperatures, daily maximum fell to normal, daily minimum rose extremely high, and subsoil temperature fell very low.

 Fully smoothed data (red)

Fully smoothed data for April 2018 did not break the previous month’s record for daily maximum temperature anomaly (x-axis), as I had thought it would.
The April smoothed rainfall anomaly of minus 27.8 mm (top left graph) beat the 21st-century record minus value of 27.1 mm set in July 2002.
In April 2018, the trend for decreasing rainfall with increasing daily maximum temperature (top left graph), which had had lasted eight months, altered as temperature began to fall.. At that date, the three other moisture anomaly variables were moving rapidly up the graphs towards drought.
Daily minimum temperature anomaly was falling from a recent maximum in February. Subsoil temperature anomaly continued its sustained rapid rise.


Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.

 * Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.

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