Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Are we coming out of drought?”
After a very cool moist March, raw values of climate anomalies for April 2014 are nearly all back near the (slightly smoothed) values for February. However, neither month was as hot or dry as December or January.
Fully-smoothed values for October 2013 show the deepening drought. That month set a new 21st century record for smoothed daily maximum temperature anomaly of +1.39°, beating the value of +1.35° set in November 2009. It also set a new low record for dew point anomaly of -4.53°, far more arid than the record set the previous month: -3.53°.
These curves show clearly that the climate (at this site) consistently became warmer and drier through the two years from spring 2011 to spring 2013, except for a brief time of reversal in the six warm-season months from October 2012 to March 2013.
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.