Tag Archives: Manilla

Another dry May in 2013

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather logWeather log May 2013

Most days were warm and sunny, but there were cold, cloudy days from the 14th to the 24th, and three of them had a little rain. By the end of the month, there had been only 26.6 mm of rain in 90 days.
There were five frosty mornings, which is normal.

 Comparing May monthsClimate May 2013.

The mean maximum temperature was half a degree high and the mean minimum half a degree low. The mean early morning dew point (2.6°) showed low humidity, but it was not as low as the May record of 0.8° set last year. There were far more cloudy mornings (42%) than usual (24%), but fewer than in 2010 or 2011 (48%). The subsoil was 2.4° warmer than normal: its autumn cooling remained three weeks late.

The rainfall total of 13.6 mm was far below the average of 40.3 mm, but May has less rain than that in 23% of the years. Furthermore, Manilla’s May rainfall has been low for many years: in this century, only May 2011 (43.2 mm) beat the long-term average.
The two month total of 18 mm is now a severe shortage: in the 3rd percentile.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

 

3-year trends to April 2013

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Back to warm and very dry”Trends to April 2013.

In April the raw value of maximum temperature anomaly became high and (indicating aridity) those of rainfall, dew point, and minimum temperature extremely low, and that of temperature range extremely wide. Cloud remained normal, and subsoil temperature high.

Fully-smoothed data points (red) for October 2012 continued to move towards higher maximum temperature, but scarcely moved further towards drought.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

April 2013: Very Dry Air

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather logWeather log April 2013.

For most of the month, days were sunny and fairly warm, while nights were cool (but not frosty). The last days were several degrees warmer than normal: as warm as the first days. Two afternoons had extremely dry air, with relative humidity below 10%. While two days had a little rain, the month ended with no readings above 5 mm in eight weeks.

 Comparing April monthsClimate April 2013

 

The mean maximum temperature was a little high and the mean minimum rather low, making the daily temperature range (18.3°) an April record. The mean early morning dew point (4.3°) was also a record (low) value, but cloudiness was normal. The subsoil was almost 2° warmer than normal: its autumn cooling was about three weeks late.
The rainfall total of 4.8 mm was far below the average of 39.3 mm, but April has less rain than that in 15% of the years.

Five Recent Months had Very Dry Air

I have put headlines about very dry air on five monthly weather reports in the last twelve. It is true: the air has been much drier than it was from 1999 to 2009.
I judge the moisture in the air mainly by the dew point – the temperature when dew would form. Normally the early morning dew point, as a monthly average, changes through the year from 15 degrees in February to 2 degrees in July. In some recent months it has been far lower than what is normal for the month:

  • May 2012: 4.4° below normal;
  • August 2012: 4.4° below normal;
  • September 2012: 4.6° below normal;
  • October 2012: 6.6°(!) below normal;
  • April 2013: 4.7° below normal.

Even in the 2002 drought, the furthest the dew point went below normal was 3.9°, in October.
One degree of change in dew point is like 5% change in relative humidity. In these months the morning relative humidity has been below normal by 20% to 35%. Afternoon humidity has been down by more: many days have gone below 10% humidity. These extremely low humidity values must affect crops and pastures, pests and diseases, and may affect health.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

 

3-year trends to March 2013

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Now cool and wet”Trends to March 2013.

While raw values of temperature anomalies were not as low as in February, March was further towards cool, moist conditions than December or January, or any months since July.

Fully-smoothed data points (red) for September 2012 continued to move towards drought. The dew point anomaly reached a seventh successive new record low: -3.37 degrees.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Rainy Cool March 2013

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather logWeather log March 2013.

Days and nights were cooler than normal until late in the month. The first day was the coldest: 22.2°. March began with 31 mm of rain on the 1st, and 45.4 mm on the 2nd, but little fell later.

 Comparing March monthsClimate March 2013.

In most ways, the month was like March last year: a bit cool, particularly in the day-time, but warm in the subsoil, and rather cloudy, but not humid. However, there was much more rain.

The total rainfall (84.6 mm) was in the 80th percentile, far above the mean of 53.3 mm. Rainfall totals for groups of months (2 months up to 360 months) are now all above their median values. The 36-month total of 2328 mm is extremely high, near the 36-month record of 2662 mm set in October 1998.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.