Tag Archives: Manilla

Desert-like September 2013

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

September was an exceptionally arid month: like the Sahara Desert!

The daily weather logWeather log September 2013

Most days were warmer than normal, with the first 30-degree day of spring coming two weeks early, on Sunday the 8th. Weekly average temperatures showed two warm spells three degrees above normal. Half the mornings had completely blue skies. The air was extremely dry: the dew point early on the 12th was 6.3 degrees below zero, and all the afternoons of the final week had relative humidity below 10%.
Briefly, from the 16th to the 18th, the weather was cooler and more humid, with 19.4 mm of rain.

Comparing September monthsClimate September 2013.

Nearly all the monthly weather values were exceptional. As noted on the graph, they were record September values (from 1999): highest maximum and mean temperatures, widest daily temperature range, lowest dew point and fewest cloudy mornings. (The September daily minimum temperature had been higher: 9.7° in 2002, and 8.2° in 2010.)
The total rainfall of 19.4 mm is half the average of 41.2 mm. It is in the 28th percentile. The two and three month totals are now serious shortages, in the 6th percentile. The 24 month total (1508 mm) and 36 month total (2231 mm) are still very high.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to August 2013

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Still warm and dry”Trends to August 2013.

The raw value of maximum temp anomaly for August was lower than for July. Other variables were typical of “drought”, except for minimum temp, which was normal.

The fully-smoothed data point for February 2013 completes a summer season that moved away from drought. By February, smoothed values of anomalies for rainfall, temperature range, and minimum temperature had returned to normal, but dew point was still very low, and cloudiness and subsoil temperature were high.

El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The first points on these graphs (September 2010) just catch the La Niña event of spring 2010, which was followed by another La Niña event in spring 2011. At Manilla, both events produced extremely low daily maximum temperature. The 2010 event produced extremes of cloudiness, humidity (high dew point), narrow daily temperature range, and low subsoil temperature. The 2011 event produced quite different results: extremely high rainfall and extremely cold nights.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Dry, Warm August 2013

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather logWeather log August 2013.

The month had no extremes of heat or cold. Frosts (10) were almost as rare as in August 2011 (9). Some overcast skies came with 5.8 mm of rain on the 17th then, from the 25th, there were five cloudless mornings bringing very warm weather. Altogether, only three days had rain (usually 6).

Comparing August monthsClimate August 2013.

After July having temperatures two degrees above normal, this month’s maximum was only one degree up, and the minimum just on normal. While the air was not as extremely dry as it was last August, the morning dew point was still very low: 2.7 degrees below normal. In contrast, the subsoil temperature remained extremely high, at 16.6°, 2.7° above normal.
Total rainfall is far below the average of 39.5 mm. At 6.4 mm, it is in the 9th percentile: since 1888, only 10 August months have been drier. In totals for two months and more, there is no serious shortage of rainfall, although nearly all totals up to 18 months are now below the median. Totals for all longer periods (up to 360 months) are above the median.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to July 2013

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Very warm days and nights”Trends to July 2013.

Raw values for July showed a big jump towards hot and dry for most variables, but dew point anomaly fell only to zero. Minimum temperature and subsoil temperature fell back a little from extremely high anomaly values in June.

The fully-smoothed data point for January 2013 continues a drift towards normal from the mild drought of October.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Extremely warm July 2013

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather logWeather log July 2013.

There were three warm spells and no cold spells in July. Fourteen days went over 20 degrees, instead of the usual four. There were only eleven frosts, the fewest in 15 July months (usually 17). In five rain days, two high rainfall figures came on the 20th (19.2mm) and the 21st (9.6mm).

Comparing July monthsClimate July 2013.

After June’s extreme cloudiness and rain, July was very near to normal in everything but temperature. The average values of daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily mean temperature were all just under two degrees above normal. The daily maximum and daily mean are 15-year record high values, but the daily minimum had been higher in July 2010: 2.4 degrees above normal.
(Note: My “normal” is the ten year average from March 1999. For the official normal period 1961-1990 there are no Manilla figures (except rainfall). This month’s very high temperatures would be (perhaps) just over 2 degrees above the 1961-1990 average.)
Rainfall, at 29.8 mm, is in the 43rd percentile, a bit below the average (41.1mm). Rainfall totals for 24 months and more are very high. This accounts for the rare appearance of water flowing locally in Greenhatch Creek.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.