Tag Archives: Gaussian smoothing

3-year trends to February 2013

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Suddenly colder”Trends to February 2013.

Temperatures, both max and min, fell from very high in January to very low in February. Daily temperature range and rainfall remained normal. Dew point remained very low, while cloudiness and subsoil temperature remained high.

Winter 2012

Fully-smoothed data (in red) reveal that the trend in winter, as in autumn, was towards “droughts” (top right) for all variables except subsoil temperature (which peaked). Mean values over winter, however, were very different:
* Subsoil temperature: very high;
* Cloudiness and temperature range: rather high;
* Maximum temperature and rainfall: normal;
* Minimum temperature: rather low;
* Dew point: extremely low.
In August, dew point anomaly again reached a new record low: -3.21 degrees.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to January 2013

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Hot nights; hot subsoil”Trends to January 2013.

Extreme heat and aridity in early January 2013 did not persist. The maximum temperature anomaly remained high, but the only other high anomalies were a very high minimum temperature and subsoil temperature.
Cloudy skies returned, after some months near the normal for 1999 to 2009.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) for July 2012 have again reached new records for low Dew Point anomaly (-2.92 degrees) and for high subsoil temperature anomaly (+2.07 degrees).

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to December 2012

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Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Retreat from drought”Trends to December 2012.

In December, the anomaly of daily maximum temperature retreated from the November extreme of +3 degrees to +1.5 degrees. Dew Point and daily temperature range also retreated from drought values. Cloudiness remained normal and daily minimum temperature high. Subsoil temperature returned to the very high values of the winter months.
The variables maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and temperature range are now close to the smoothed values they had three years ago, in December 2009.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) for June 2012 have reached new records for low Dew Point anomaly (-2.61 degrees) and for high subsoil temperature anomaly (+1.99 degrees).

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Droughty Spring 2012

Posted in Manilla NSW, Season Weather by

Weather log Spring 2012.Temperatures rose as normal this spring, apart from a quick rise in the last week and a cold spell in the second week of October. In the cold spell, one day failed to reach 14°! Rain fell nearly every week, but never more than 15 mm in a day.

After last spring’s record-breaking 432 mm rainfall, this spring was about as droughty as spring 2002. The rainfall total, 81 mm, was a bit higher than in spring 2002 (66 mm) and the percent of cloudy mornings higher (25% vs. 19%), but the dew point (humidity) was much lower (3.7° vs. 5.4°) and the daily temperature range was higher (17.9° vs. 17.1°).
Showers in the last days lifted the total rainfall (81 mm) to the 10th percentile for springs.Climate spring 2012.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to November 2012

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“In drought”

Trends to November 2012.

In November, the anomaly of daily maximum temperature (which had paused near zero for five months) suddenly rose to +3°. Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature also rose, but moisture variables (including daily temperature range) retreated from values typical of extreme drought. November was hotter, but not quite so dry.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) now include all of autumn (March-April-May) 2012. During autumn, all smoothed variables showed a steady advance towards the top right corner of the graphs (“droughts”). However, four variables were still on the “flooding rains” side of neutral: maximum temperature, rainfall, cloud, and minimum temperature. Two variables were already on the “drought” side: dew point and subsoil temperature. Temperature range was neutral.
The May 2012 value of smoothed dew point anomaly (-2.30°) is a new record low for smoothed data, beating the record of the previous month (-2.00°). Following months will be even more arid.

Note: Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares. Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.