Tag Archives: climate

3-year trends to December 2010

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla

“Still More Flooding Rains”

Trends to December 2010

December 2010 raw data points are yet again in the “Flooding Rains” area in the bottom left corner of five of the six graphs. Anomaly values of rainfall, cloudy days, Dew Point, temperature range and subsoil temperature are extreme. The Minimum temperature anomaly is stuck near zero.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Cloudy December 2010; cloudy year

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather log

Weather log December 2010

December moved further into the cool, cloudy, humid and wet part of the climate cycle that Dorothea Mackellar called “Flooding Rains”. Nearly all days were cooler than normal, the 19th by as much as 12°. Some nights were also cool, the 21st being 10° below normal.
The highest rainfall reading of 26.4 mm came early in the month. The total of 113.8 mm came in 15 rain days. In 126 years, only six months have had more than 15 rain days. No month ever had more than the 18 rain days of June 1950.

Comparing December months

Climate December 2010

Both the mean daily maximum temperature (28.1°) and the mean daily mean temperature (22.2°) were the lowest for December on this 12-year record. The mean daily temperature range (11.7°) was also a record low value. The mean subsoil temperature (22.7°) was the lowest December value since 1999.
There were 58% cloudy mornings, nearly twice the normal percentage..
The rainfall of 113.8 mm is in the 82nd percentile for December, far above the long-term average of 74 mm. Totals for groups of 2-, 3-, and 4-months are now all above the 90th percentile.

The year 2010

The rainfall for the year was 719 mm. This is well above average, in the 64th percentile, but the years 2004, 2007, and 2008 were just as wet. Most remarkable is that the number of rain days in the year, 112, was the highest ever. The average year has 69 rain days, and the year with the fewest rain days (38) was 1898.
The year was by far the cloudiest in 12 years: half the mornings were cloudy, when normally only one-third of them are. Every month was cloudier than usual.
With the cloud came remarkably even temperatures. Taking average values, the daily maximum temperature (24.6°) was a degree cooler than usual, the daily minimum temperature (11.3°) was a degree warmer than usual, and the daily range of temperature (13.3°) was two degrees narrower than usual.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

Spring 2010 cloudy, damp and cool

Posted in Manilla NSW, Season Weather by

Weather log spring 2010

Days this spring were very cool, keeping the seven-day mean maximum curve below normal nearly all the time. Twenty-two mornings were overcast, twice the usual number, and the number of rain days (29) was the highest in twelve springs.

The mean daily maximum temperature (24.1°) was a record low in this data set, more than 4° lower than last year. Similarly, the daily temperature range (12.9°) was unusually narrow, 3.5° narrower than last year. Other temperatures were near normal, except for the record low Subsoil temperature of 17.5°. Cloudy mornings, at 56%, were a record high.
The total spring rainfall of 249 mm is in the 86th percentile. While this is well above the long-term spring average of 166 mm, four of the previous eleven springs were even wetter: 1999, 2000, 2005, and 2008.
Climate spring 2010

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.

3-year trends to November 2010

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Near a “flooding rains” peak?”

Trends to November 2010

Data points for climate anomalies in the autumn months (MAM) of 2010 are now fully smoothed.

  • In autumn 2010 the smoothed maximum temperature anomaly fell much faster than it had risen in the previous autumn (clearer on the second and fourth graphs). Partially smoothed later values suggest that an extreme negative temperature anomaly came in October 2010.
  • Rainfall anomalies are plotted (inverted) on the y-axis of the first graph. Fully-smoothed autumn values rose with falling maximum temperature, but remained negative. Later values generally rose rapidly to an extreme positive raw value of +38 mm in November.
  • During autumn of 2010 the anomaly of percent cloudy days rose to a new record for fully-smoothed values. It continued to rise to an apparent extreme in October 2010.
  • Early morning dew point was positive and rising in autumn. It seems to have peaked at less than a record value in September 2010.
  • The anomaly of daily temperature range fell during autumn to a new negative record for smoothed data. It continued to fall to an apparent negative peak in September 2010.
  • In autumn daily minimum anomalies fell little below the peak of December 2009. Later they traced an arc through the “Equable” zone of the graph, ending near zero.
  • The autumn subsoil temperature anomaly was near zero and scarcely falling. It then accelerated downwards to an apparent extreme in October 2010.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

November 2010: more cool, cloudy, wet weather

Posted in Manilla NSW, Monthly weather by

The daily weather log

Weather log November 2010 Manilla

As in October, November’s days were very cool: only 5 days went above 30°.
Rain fell on 11 days. The highest reading was 21.0 mm on the 12th.

Comparing November months

Climate November 2010 Manilla

The mean daily maximum temperature (26.5°) was the lowest for November on this 12-year record. The mean daily temperature range (12.4°) was (with November 2008) a record low value.
Mean subsoil temperature (20.4°) was the lowest since November 1999. The month ended with subsoil temperature (then 22.2°) trailing only 10 days later than its usual date. It had begun the month 22 days late.
There were more cloudy mornings (53%) than in any November on this record.
The rainfall of 105.4 mm is in the 84th percentile for November, far above the long-term average of 67 mm. Totals for groups of months up to 15 months are now all above the median, as is the thirty-year total.

Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.