Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Near a “flooding rains” peak?”

Data points for climate anomalies in the autumn months (MAM) of 2010 are now fully smoothed.

• In autumn 2010 the smoothed maximum temperature anomaly fell much faster than it had risen in the previous autumn (clearer on the second and fourth graphs). Partially smoothed later values suggest that an extreme negative temperature anomaly came in October 2010.
• Rainfall anomalies are plotted (inverted) on the y-axis of the first graph. Fully-smoothed autumn values rose with falling maximum temperature, but remained negative. Later values generally rose rapidly to an extreme positive raw value of +38 mm in November.
• During autumn of 2010 the anomaly of percent cloudy days rose to a new record for fully-smoothed values. It continued to rise to an apparent extreme in October 2010.
• Early morning dew point was positive and rising in autumn. It seems to have peaked at less than a record value in September 2010.
• The anomaly of daily temperature range fell during autumn to a new negative record for smoothed data. It continued to fall to an apparent negative peak in September 2010.
• In autumn daily minimum anomalies fell little below the peak of December 2009. Later they traced an arc through the “Equable” zone of the graph, ending near zero.
• The autumn subsoil temperature anomaly was near zero and scarcely falling. It then accelerated downwards to an apparent extreme in October 2010.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.