Tag Archives: 3-year

3-year trends to December 2013

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Still in drought”Trends to December 2013.

Raw anomaly values for climate variables for December 2013 are nearly all in the top right “droughts” corner.

Six months earlier, the fully-smoothed data point for June 2013 also moved towards drought. The value for subsoil anomaly reached a new record of 2.31 degrees.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to November 2013

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Less droughty”

Trends to November 2013.

Most raw anomaly values (orange) for November climate variables remained on the “drought” side of normal, but less extreme than in October. As an exception, rainfall was very high.

Fully-smoothed data points (red) for autumn (MAM) of 2013 show a climate that was normal in the context of the decade beginning April 1999. Anomalies were high cloudiness, low dew point and warm subsoil. The last fully-smoothed data point, for May 2013, moved towards drought.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to October 2013

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Even more arid”Trends to October 2013.

Of the raw values of climate anomalies in October 2013, daily maximum temperature, among others, fell back from the extreme high reached in September. However, rainfall and dew point became extremely low, and temperature range extremely wide, suggesting extreme drought.

Anomalies of fully-smoothed points for April 2013 were mainly near zero, like those of March. That is, the climate was quite normal.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to September 2013

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Desert-like climate”Trend to September 2013.

Raw values of climate anomalies for September 2013 all show extreme aridity: they are in the top right corner of the graphs.
The latest fully-smoothed data point, March 2013, continues a trend towards normalcy and away from the mild drought seen in spring 2012.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

3-year trends to August 2013

Posted in 3-year climate trends, Manilla NSW by

Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Still warm and dry”Trends to August 2013.

The raw value of maximum temp anomaly for August was lower than for July. Other variables were typical of “drought”, except for minimum temp, which was normal.

The fully-smoothed data point for February 2013 completes a summer season that moved away from drought. By February, smoothed values of anomalies for rainfall, temperature range, and minimum temperature had returned to normal, but dew point was still very low, and cloudiness and subsoil temperature were high.

El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The first points on these graphs (September 2010) just catch the La Niña event of spring 2010, which was followed by another La Niña event in spring 2011. At Manilla, both events produced extremely low daily maximum temperature. The 2010 event produced extremes of cloudiness, humidity (high dew point), narrow daily temperature range, and low subsoil temperature. The 2011 event produced quite different results: extremely high rainfall and extremely cold nights.

Note:
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.