Wilga blossoms in June
The first week of June was cold but sunny, the second warm, and the rest not quite so warm. Rain registered (unofficially) on the 17th was 54.5 mm. That was close to the record June day of rainfall at Manilla Post Office: 55.1 mm on 18/6/1930.
The early morning minimum of the 17th was extremely warm, at 12.8°: the fifth warmest for June. There were 12 frosts (as usual) but none was severe. On two mornings, fog persisted past nine o-clock.
Comparing June months
Most monthly averages were near normal. Daily minima were up one degree, and morning dew points down one degree.
While lower than in June 2013, the total rainfall of 74.4 mm is high: in the 82nd percentile. Among rainfall totals for more than one month, there are no serious shortages. The lowest percentile value (11th) is for the 24-month total of 996 mm.
Data. All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla. Rainfall data up to 26/3/15 is from Manilla Post Office, Station 055031.
Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“June 2015: back to normal”
June raw anomaly data (orange)
Nearly all raw anomalies for the latest month are nearer to normal than the partially-smoothed anomalies of the autumn months. They are also quite close to the smoothed values of a year ago. Rainfall stands alone as a high value.
Fully smoothed data (red)
In December 2014, most anomalies were normal, or near normal, and changing only slowly.
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999.* They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.
* Normal values for rainfall are based on averages for the 125 years beginning 1883.
One Brick Thermal Mass
The “Indoor climate” posts on this blog relate to the particular house that I live in. Mainly by luck, it has proved to need very little energy indeed to remain comfortable in all seasons.
Recently, I have collected and arranged photos of the house so that people can see what kind of a house it is.
These photos are accessed by way of “My House Page”.
Footings View East
In the last few days I have uploaded photos of the stages in the building of the house. They are in two galleries. The first, “Building Photos: Start” covers from preparation for building up to the erection of timber frames. The photo on the left, showing some of the footings, is an example.
The second new gallery, “Building Photos: Finishing” covers from laying bricks for thermal mass walls (as in the photo at the top) to the completion of an acrylic textured coating on the walls.
Photos of the completed house, inside and out, had been posted already, in “Award photos 1999″.
Once an “Indoor Climate” post or page has been accessed on this web-site, links to all others appear. A post such as this one, when accessed through “Home” will not link to the others until it is selected positively by clicking its title line.
This post updates a similar one by including three more years to make a total of sixteen. It is in the same format as a recent post on Manilla’s frosts. Because the summer, which has the most hot days, crosses from one calendar year to the next, I have begun each year at July. I have called days warmer than 35° “hot days”, and days warmer than 40° “very hot days”.
Graphical log of hot and very hot days
The first graph is a log of the number of hot and very hot days in each year. The three years with the most hot days had almost the same number: the year ’02-’03 had 41, the year ’09-’10 had 44, and the year ’13-’14 had 43. The two years with the fewest were ’07-’08 which had 5, and ’11-’12, which had only 4. The 13-year average is 26. Counting only the very hot days, ’03-’04 had the most (6), and four years had none at all. On the average, two days exceeded 40° in a year. (These are thirteen-year averages, not updated.) The number of hot days per year seems to have a cyclic pattern, with a period that increases from two years to four years during this short record. This is just a curiosity. The pattern of hot days has a lot in common with the pattern of smoothed monthly temperature anomalies for all months. These are plotted (up to 2011) here, on a graph that relates them to ENSO. The relation of Manilla daily maximum temperature to ENSO was quite close from 1999 to 2012, but failed almost completely since 2012. In the earlier post on frosts, no cyclic pattern can be seen, nor any relation to ENSO.
New Record hottest days
In the sixteen years, there have now been 37 days hotter than 40 degrees: that is, 2.4 days per year. It remains true that December has fewer very hot days than November or February. A new record was set on 12/1/2013 by a daily maximum temperature of 43.2 degrees, beating the 42.6 degrees of 20/11/2009. This record was broken again on 3/1/2014, with 43.7 degrees. In the latest year, the hottest day (41.1 degrees) ranked only 12th, and it was not in summer, but in November.
Three new annual graphs
This post updates a similar one by including three more years to make a total of sixteen.
The Number of Frosts in Each Year
The first graph is a log of the number of frosts in each year. The pattern is different when counting all frosts or only severe frosts.
The log for all frosts had two periods of stable, medium numbers of frosts: from 1999 to 2003, and from 2008 to 2011. Three years had many frosts: 2004 (68), 2006 (70), and 2012 (69). The year 2007 had the fewest frosts (43) until beaten by 2013 (34).
In the logs for severe frosts below minus 2° or minus 4° in the thermometer screen, the drought year 2002 stands out as the most frosty by far. It had the coldest mornings: -5.1° on both the 2nd and 11th of July.
The Last Three Years
The second graph compares the mean seasonal pattern of frosts with the patterns for the three latest years: 2012, 2013, and 2014.
The frost season of 2012, which almost matched the record 70 frosts of 2006, began early and ended late. May had 13 frosts (like the 14 of 2006) and September had 10 (like the 8 of 2003).
The curve for the season of 2013 ( the new record fewest) was like that of a normal frost season, but lower.
The year 2014 was not very frosty, because the season began late, with no frosts in May and only nine in June.
Graphs showing the seasonal frost patterns for earlier years are copied here.
There is 2013 reserch on frost in NSW titled “Understanding frost risk in a variable and changing climate” reported here.
It is in GRDC Update Papers (Grains Research and development Corporation). The research is done by Steven Crimp and co-workers at CSIRO Climate Adaption Flagship.
Referring to the period 1960 to 2010,
“Over many parts of NSW the frost season length has broadened by as much as 40 days and the mean number of consecutive frost days has increased to 5 days.”
Eucalyptus albens in bloom
For a time around the 20th of April, days averaged five degrees colder than normal. At that time nights were warm, making the daily temperature range a remarkable eight degrees less than normal. On three occasions the dew point (humidity) was down by six degrees or more: early and late in March, and in mid-May. The sub-soil temperature was low most of the time by up to half a degree, but ended one degree high. Rain fell in each fortnight. The number of rain days (19) was high, but the highest daily reading (26 mm) was normal. This autumn, like the last, was moist. The rainfall, at 137.5 mm, was a little higher (on the 60th percentile) and the mean daily temperature range was a new record narrow value of only 14.0°. The season was very cloudy, with 41% cloudy mornings, but did not beat last year’s record 48%. The early morning dew point, 7.2°, was not even up to normal (8.5°). Warm nights and cool days made the mean temperature normal.
Temperature, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.
A case moth
While there were four frosts (usually 6) that came early in the month, a record number of eleven nights were warmer than 10°. Some were very warm. At 15.1°, the night of the 3rd was the 4th warmest May night. Although the night of the 31st was only 13.0°, since it came so late, that was 9.0° above normal for that date. By contrast, most days were cooler than normal.
The frostier times were sunny, but skies later became cloudy. Finally, days were chilly and overcast. Cloud blanketed the hills, but steady rain (16.5 mm) held off until the very end.
Comparing May months
The most remarkable mean value for the month is the daily temperature range: at 12.9°, it is 2.4° below normal. The May months with the narrowest ranges to date, in 2001 and 2014, had ranges of 14.7°, only 0.6° below normal. The narrow temperature range is due to cloudy skies which, at 52%, equal the record for May.
Linked with these figures are a very cool mean daily maximum temperature of 20.2°, and a very warm mean daily minimum temperature of 7.3°. The mean early morning dew point (5.0°) is not high, but higher than in any May month since 2007.
The total rainfall of 30.8 mm is in the 51st percentile. (While the long-term May average is 40 mm, May rainfall in the 21st century has averaged only 21 mm.) Among rainfall totals for more than one month, there are no serious shortages. The lowest percentile value (14th) is for the 24-month total of 1019 mm.
Data. All data, including subsoil at 750 mm, are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.