This post updates a similar post that was based on data available in July 2011. I now have data from three more years.
World surface air temperature
The blue line shows how the air has warmed and cooled during the 21st century. It is based on GISS, which is one of three century-long records that estimate the surface air temperature of the whole earth. The other two are HadCRUT and NCDC.
Monthly values of GISS vary wildly, and I have smoothed them with a 37-month moving average. Ole Humlum uses 37-month smoothing in many graphs on his website.
The 37-month smoothing allows plotting only up to 18 months ago, in December 2012. As you see, the GISS air temperature anomaly (See Note 1.), when smoothed in this way, moves rather steadily in one direction for years at a time.
The world’s surface air warmed rapidly from early 2000 to late 2002, then warmed slowly to a peak in early 2006. This is the warmest the world surface air has been in hundreds of years. After that peak, the air cooled rapidly by two-thirtieths of a degree to a trough in late 2007. It warmed again slowly to a lower peak in early 2010, steadied for a year, then fell to a trough in January 2012 that was like the previous trough. The air warmed rapidly through 2012. Continue reading
This post is the fourth in a set for the 12 calendar months. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.
Raw anomaly values for June
Extreme values of June anomalies in this period were:
Daily Maximum Temperature anomaly -3.5 deg: June 2007;
Daily Minimum Temperature anomaly +3.1 deg: June 2009;
Subsoil Temperature anomaly +3.2 deg: June 2013;
Rainfall Anomaly +65 mm: June 2005
Temperature range anomaly (minus) +4.1 deg: June 2007;
Temperature range anomaly (minus) +3.5 deg: June 2013;
Percent Cloudy Days +40%: June 2013.
Trend lines for June
The trend of mean temperature rose from zero at first to stay at 0.5 deg from 2004 to 2010, then rose again.
The trends of daily maximum and daily minimum temperature anomalies were mirror-reversed about the mean trend line. The maximum line reached a peak in 2003 and a trough in 2009, while the minimum line did the reverse. The subsoil temperature anomaly trend was slightly low in 2004 and was high in 2014.
This post is the third in a set for the 12 calendar months. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.
Raw anomaly values for May
Extreme values of May anomalies in this period were:
Daily Minimum Temperature anomaly -3.6 deg: May 2006;
Morning Dew Point Anomaly +3.6 deg: May 1999;
Morning Dew Point Anomaly -3.9 deg: May 2006;
Morning Dew Point Anomaly -3.2 deg: May 2011;
Morning Dew Point Anomaly -4.4 deg: May 2012;
Temperature range anomaly (minus) -3.2 deg: May 2006.
Trend lines for May
The trends of all three air temperature anomalies were almost the same, except that anomalies of daily minimum temperature were more negative. All began high in 1999, reached a minimum in 2002, a maximum in 2007, and a minimum in 2011-12. The trend of subsoil temperature was contrary, and generally increasing.
This post is the second in a set for the 12 calendar months. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.
Raw anomaly values for April
April anomalies had few extreme values in this period:
Daily Maximum Temperature anomaly +3.4°: April 2005;
Morning Dew Point Anomaly -3.3°: April 2008;
Morning Dew Point Anomaly -4.8°: April 2013;
Rainfall anomaly +79 mm: April 2003.
Trend lines for April
The trends of all three air temperature anomalies were almost the same. They began very low in 1999, reached a maximum in 2002-3 and a minimum in 2009-10. The trend of subsoil temperature began similarly, but with much less variation, and peaked in 2012.
This post is the first in a set for the 12 calendar months. Graphs are sixteen-year logs of the monthly mean anomaly values of nine climate variables for Manilla, NSW, with fitted trend lines. I have explained the method in notes at the foot of the page.
Raw anomaly values for March
Extreme values for March anomalies in this period were:
Daily Minimum Temperature anomaly -2.9°: March 2008;
Morning Dew Point Anomaly +3.5°: March 2000;
Morning Dew Point Anomaly -3.2°: March 2008;
Rainfall anomaly +61 mm: March 2007;
Percent cloudy mornings anomaly +37%: March 2011.
Trend lines for March
Daily maximum temperature showed minima about -1 deg in 2001 and 2014, and a maximum about zero in 2007.
Daily minimum showed a minimum two years later, about 2003, then rose in parallel with daily maximum, but ended very high.
Subsoil temperature did not agree, and varied less. It had maxima in 2002 and 2012. It may show a lag of five years behind daily maximum.
Parametric plots of smoothed climate variables at Manilla
“Climate normal for now”
June data (orange)
Raw anomaly values for June 2014 have nothing in common with the droughty conditions at the end of 2013. Daily maximum temperature and rainfall (top left graph) are both normal. A return to a moist climate, like that in spring 2011, shows as cloudy skies (top right), high dew point (mid left), and narrow temperature range (mid right). Daily minimum temperature (lower left) has moved independently to a high value (that is, very warm nights). Only subsoil temperature (lower right) has jumped back to warm 2013 values, after a period of normalcy.
Fully smoothed data (red)
December 2013 is now the latest fully-smoothed data point. It seems to mark the point of lowest rainfall and dew point anomalies in recent months. In other variables (except daily minimum temperature) December continued a retreat from recent extreme (drought) values.
Fully smoothed data – Gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months – are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
Normal values are based on averages for the decade from March 1999. They appear on these graphs as a turquoise (turquoise) circle at the origin (0,0). A range of anomalies called “normal” is shown by a dashed rectangle in aqua (aqua). For values in degrees, the assigned normal range is +/-0.7°; for cloudiness, +/-7%; for monthly rainfall, +/-14 mm.
The daily weather log
Oil Engine’s Day Out
In four short rainy spells, nights were very warm and days cool. Otherwise, the weather was normal but rather cloudy. There were eight rain days (normally six). The wettest had 17 mm, which is normal. Only nine mornings were frosty, when normally there are thirteen.
Comparing June months
Most average values were near normal for June. However, the nights were warm, the daily temperature range narrow, and the skies cloudy. The month was not extremely wet and cloudy like June last year.
The total rainfall of 40.2 mm is in the 55th percentile, close to the average.. Taking rainfall totals for more than one month, only the 12-month and 15-month totals are serious shortages (7th percentile). The 3-month total (71 mm) is in the 12th percentile. Other totals have higher percentile values, and most totals for 36 months or more are above normal.
Data. Rainfall data is from Manilla Post Office, courtesy of Phil Pinch. Temperatures, including subsoil at 750 mm, and other data are from 3 Monash Street, Manilla.